REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market, Economy, Fed, Markets, Where Are the Workers? Where is the Recession? – 6/2/23

Posted June 2, 2023 by rvillareal

[private]

[/private]

• Labor Market in May—Still Supertight and Cooking with Gas?  Or Sputtering?
  • Jobs (Payrolls); Persons Working, Labor Supply and Unemployment Rate (Hh. Survey)—Strong?  Weakening?  Weak?
  • Wages (Avg. Hrly. Earnings, AHE) and Compensation in Cost-Push Inflation—Once Up, Widespread in Prices and Price Inflation
• Where Are the Workers?  Structural Shift to Techno-Centric from Labor-Centric?
  • Openings, Demand and Shortages
  • Services Jobs—Shortages
  • A Global Phenomenon?
• “Basic Prospect” A “Soft Landing”—Odds, 55%; Recession, Odds 35%; Fed Scenario, Odds 10%
  • Data—Recent and Coming Say No Recession Soon!  But Inflation Sticky-High
  • Major Risk—Financial Disarray; the “Financial Factor” in the Business Cycle; High and Rising Interest Rates; Disintermediation; Credit Crunch; Banks and Nonbank Financial Institution Fragility; Lending, Borrowing and Fragile Balance Sheets; Failures in Extremis
• Fed and Interest Rates—
  • On Hold or Higher is FedThink
  • Interest Rates—Volatile in a Range
• “Washington”—
  • “Debt Ceiling” Deal a Plus
  • Deficits—Spending, Taxes Still Huge Longer-Run Problem
• Earnings—”Mild Recession” About Halfway Through With Profits Upturn in 2024
  • Fair Value Ranges and the Stock Market
    • Tilting Up
    • Current 3700 to 4400, Up from 3600 to 4300, Up from 3500 to 4200
    • 4050 Point Fair Value
  • Pluses and Minuses—“Soft” Bull Equity Market?