» REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals – 01/08/21 Decision Economics

REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals – 01/08/21

Posted January 8, 2021 by rvillareal

Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals

  • 2020—“Year of the Pandemic;” 2021—“Year of the Vaccines”—Transitioning to Normal?
  • December Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Weakening or Stable?
    • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Hh. Survey); Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR); Unemployment Rate
    • Strengths and Weaknesses
    • Employed and Unemployed—“Army of Unemployed”
  • The Labor Market and Economy Prospect
    • DE Basic Prospect (Odds 65%; Unch.)
    • Major Macro Risk Alternatives—“W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%, Unch.)
    • Parameter Path—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Profits
  • Sustained and Sustainable Recovery and Expansion—Still the Story
    • Pandemic and the Vaccines—2021
    • Reopenings and Pentup Demands
    • Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy
    • Fiscal Stimulus—In 2020 and to-come
    • Non-U.S. Recoveries
    • “Mood of America”
  • Lesson—The Business Cycle is The Business Cycle—Mechanisms, No Excesses, Resilient
  • Financial Markets Perspectives and Forecasts
    • Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
    • Interest Rates—Tending Higher Longer Duration
    • U.S. Dollar Weakness—Deficits, Debt and Governance