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REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals – 01/08/21
Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals
- 2020—“Year of the Pandemic;” 2021—“Year of the Vaccines”—Transitioning to Normal?
Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Weakening or Stable?
- Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Hh. Survey); Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR); Unemployment Rate
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- Employed and Unemployed—“Army of Unemployed”
Labor Market and Economy Prospect
- DE Basic Prospect (Odds 65%; Unch.)
- Major Macro Risk Alternatives—“W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%, Unch.)
- Parameter Path—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Profits
and Sustainable Recovery and Expansion—Still the Story
- Pandemic and the Vaccines—2021
- Reopenings and Pentup Demands
- Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy
- Fiscal Stimulus—In 2020 and to-come
- Non-U.S. Recoveries
- “Mood of America”
- Lesson—The Business Cycle is The Business Cycle—Mechanisms, No Excesses, Resilient
Markets Perspectives and Forecasts
- Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
- Interest Rates—Tending Higher Longer Duration
- U.S. Dollar Weakness—Deficits, Debt and Governance