REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals – 01/08/21

Posted January 8, 2021 by rvillareal

[private]

[/private]

Labor Market: End 2020—Beginning 2021: Messages and Signals

• 2020—“Year of the Pandemic;” 2021—“Year of the Vaccines”—Transitioning to Normal?
• December Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Weakening or Stable?
  • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Hh. Survey); Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR); Unemployment Rate
  • Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Employed and Unemployed—“Army of Unemployed”
• The Labor Market and Economy Prospect
  • DE Basic Prospect (Odds 65%; Unch.)
  • Major Macro Risk Alternatives—“W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%, Unch.)
  • Parameter Path—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Profits
• Sustained and Sustainable Recovery and Expansion—Still the Story
  • Pandemic and the Vaccines—2021
  • Reopenings and Pentup Demands
  • Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy
  • Fiscal Stimulus—In 2020 and to-come
  • Non-U.S. Recoveries
  • “Mood of America”
• Lesson—The Business Cycle is The Business Cycle—Mechanisms, No Excesses, Resilient
• Financial Markets Perspectives and Forecasts
  • Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
  • Interest Rates—Tending Higher Longer Duration
  • U.S. Dollar Weakness—Deficits, Debt and Governance