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REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market (July) and the Economy – 8/2/24
Labor Market (July) and the Economy
“Cooling” and Rebalancing—But Not “Cold”?
After a Supertight Red Hot couple of years, in recent months the Labor Market has been softening, cooling, rebalancing toward a Pre-COVID state, now with some uncertainty over possible growing downside risk to the Expansion amid continuing sticky-high price inflation.
1) Will the Labor Market Keep Cooling, But Not Turn Cold?
2) Is a Weakening Labor Market Signaling an Expansion Running Out-of-Steam?
3) With Now a 0.7 Percentage Point Increase in the Unemployment Rate Since April (3.4% to 4.1%), is the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff (Phillips Curve) Back?
4) Can Price Inflation Keep Moving “Sustainably” Toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% Target?
5) What is Ahead for the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy? The July 30-31 FOMC Meeting
Employment Report (July)
- The Data
- Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, Companies); Persons Working, Looking For Work, and the Unemployment Rate (Hh. Survey, Persons)
- Compensation and Labor Costs—Avg. Hrly. Earnings (AHE)
- Price Inflation Going Forward—Tilting Down?
- Unemployment Rate Now and Going Forward—Tilting Up?
- Economy and the Prospect—Q3 and Beyond
- Baseline (Expansion, Odds 65%);
- Alternative Scenarios (Recession, Odds 10%; Soft Landing, Fed Forecast, Odds 15%); Boomy Expansion (Odds 10%)
- Fed Policy—FOMC Meeting Results and a Look Ahead
- FedThink—The Statement and Press Conference
- Fed Funds Policy Rate Going Forward
- Financial Markets’ Prospects—Short- and Longer-Run
- Summer Doldrums After a Big Run? Volatility on “Washington” and “Geopolitics”
Equity Market, Good News Economy Well-Priced, Washington and Geopolitical Risks Spinning
- Dollar Run Up Over?
- Long-Duration Interest Rates, Debt and the Federal Budget
- Fair Value S&P 500 Still 5200 to 5800—Midpoint 5500