Replay| Monthly |Employment Conference Call | Labor Market at Midyear—Weakening? – 7/8/22

Posted July 12, 2022 by rvillareal

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Labor Market at Midyear—Weakening?

 Fading, or Not, in the June Labor Market and the Economy?
• Strong, Weak, Mixed?
• Jobs (Payrolls); Persons Working (HH Survey); Unemployment Rate; Wage Cost-Push?
• At Full Employment and Weakening? At Full Employment and Strengthening?
 Economy and Inflation Implications
• “Slowdown” or “Recession”?
• Inflation Accelerating, Diminishing, or Stuck High
 Basic Prospect “Expansion” (60% Odds)—Slowdown But No Recession So A “Soft Landing”
• Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Profits Forecast Parameters
• “Recession” (25% Odds Next 12 Months)
• “Bust” (5% Odds in 2022)
• Growth Recession (5% Odds Over Next 12 Months)
• Other (5% Odds Soft Landing Variants)
 “Inflation Genie Out of the Box”—Classic “Demand-Pull” But With Supply-Side Shocks
• “Demand-Pull” Inflation Process Anatomy
• Some Early Signs of Diminishing?
 Fed Prospect—Catchup Called Frontloaded—Compounding the Error?
• Fed Funds Forecast
• QT (Quantitative Tightening)
• Interest Rates Forecast
 Equity Market—”Correction” or “Bear Market”—Range of Fair Values and Fair Value Ranges
 Keep “Powder Dry?” Or “Tiptoe-In?” Asset Allocation Weightings