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REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/5/16
The Labor Market and the Economy—
Starting 2016 and the Prospect
- S. Jobs Market in January—Can it Hold Up? Still Strong? Weakening? Mixed?
- Jobs and Where?
- Unemployment Rate and “Slack”
- Wage Inflation and Price Inflation? Where Is It?
- The Economy and Labor Market Prospects—2016
- Basic Prospect (Odds 65%): Changes—Slower Growth; Lower Inflation; Higher Unemployment Rate; Lower Profits
- Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios
- Disappointing Growth (20%)
- Inflation Surprise (10%)
- Delayed Upturn (5%)
- The “Global Factor”—China Tentacles and Non-U.S. Factors
- Central Banks go to Work Again—Easing (BOJ, ECB, PBOC, Others) or Not Tightening (Fed)
- The Fed—Lower Price Inflation so a Lower Path for the Federal Funds Rate
- Two or One Hikes with June the Earliest
- Fundamentals and Prospects for Interest Rates—The New DE Interest Rate Models, Forecasts and “What Ifs”
- The Equity Market—Fundamentals and Forecasts—DE Models and Changes
- S&P500 Operating Earnings—Lower
- Valuation (Forward P/E)—No Change
- Fair Value and Ranges—Lower