REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/5/16

Posted February 5, 2016 by rvillareal

The Labor Market and the Economy—

Starting 2016 and the Prospect

[private]

• S. Jobs Market in January—Can it Hold Up? Still Strong? Weakening? Mixed?

• Jobs and Where?
• Unemployment Rate and “Slack”
  • Wage Inflation and Price Inflation?  Where Is It?
• The Economy and Labor Market Prospects—2016
  • Basic Prospect (Odds 65%): Changes—Slower Growth; Lower Inflation; Higher Unemployment Rate; Lower Profits
  • Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios
    • Disappointing Growth (20%)
    • Inflation Surprise (10%)
    • Delayed Upturn (5%)
  • The “Global Factor”—China Tentacles and Non-U.S. Factors
• Central Banks go to Work Again—Easing (BOJ, ECB, PBOC, Others) or Not Tightening (Fed)
  • The Fed—Lower Price Inflation so a Lower Path for the Federal Funds Rate
  • Two or One Hikes with June the Earliest
  • Fundamentals and Prospects for Interest Rates—The New DE Interest Rate Models, Forecasts and “What Ifs”
• The Equity Market—Fundamentals and Forecasts—DE Models and Changes
  • S&P500 Operating Earnings—Lower
  • Valuation (Forward P/E)—No Change
  • Fair Value and Ranges—Lower

REPLAY – Employment Feb 2016 [/private]