» REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 6/3/16 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 6/3/16

Posted June 3, 2016 by rvillareal

The Labor Market: Decisive for the Fed in June and Beyond? [private]

  • May U.S. Labor Market—Not Decisive
  • The Report—Strong? Weak? Mixed?
    • Nonfarm Payrolls and the Pace
  • Unemployment and “Slack”
  • Wage Inflation and the Labor Market Wage-Price Cyclical Mechanism
    • Why Not Decisive for the Fed?
  • Strong Lift Up for Q2 Economy; the Consumer Again
  • Higher U.S. Inflation in the Fed’s Key Indicator
    • Higher Crude Oil Prices
    • Mixed Dollar
    • Better Overseas Prospect
    • Relatively Stable Markets
  • Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Growth In-and-Around Full Employment
    • Slower Jobs Growth Likely
    • “Full Employment” Economy Different
  • Fed Prospect and DE Interest Rate Forecasts
  • 2-or-3 Hikes in 2016?  2?  2-or-1?
  • The DE U.S. Treasury Interest Rate Model and the Interest Rate Forecasts
    • FedSpeak
  • Some Additional Perspectives—Macro Risks and the Markets

REPLAY – Employment Jun 2016 [/private]