REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 6/6/14

Posted June 6, 2014 by rvillareal

Spring and the U.S. Labor Market, Economy,

              Fed and the Markets[private]

1. Labor Market State, Issues and Prospects

• May Data and Messages

1. Strong, Weak, Mixed?  How Much Just a Rebound?
2. Nonfarm Payroll, the Unemployment Rate, and Collateral Measures
3. Economy and Inflation Implications

• Gap Between “Actual” and “Full Employment”—How Big?
• Approach to Full Employment—How Fast?

1. DE “Basic Prospect” and Alternative Risk Scenarios—Effects from the Data
   1. “Five Pillars” of the Basic Prospect—Holding Up?
   2. Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios—Upside and Downside
2. Fed View as Viewed by DE
   1. When Clear of the Data Rebound from Fed Point-of-View?
   2. The June Fed Meeting; then July 29-30
   3. The New Fed Definition of Full Employment—A Big Break with History and More Flexibility
   4. Key Fed Issues—Exit Mechanics and Timing?

Tapering and the First Rate Hike? Timing?

1. Coming Big Issue—“Tradeoff” Between Inflation and Unemployment
2. The DE Scenario on Fed Policy
3. Equity, Fixed Income, and Currency Market Perspectives

 REPLAY – Employment Jun 2014[/private]