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REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – July 2018
Labor Market: Summer Pause or Heating Up?
- Labor Market—Key Indicator for The Consumer, Economy, Inflation, the Fed, the Markets
- June Labor Market—Strong, Mixed, Weak
- Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
- Full Employment? Price Stability?
- Economy and Labor Market Prospects Rest-of-the-Year
- DE “Basic Prospect”—Above-Trend Growth, Beyond Full Employment and Tight Labor Market, Rising Inflation—Price and Wage
- Redistribution of Risks Toward the Downside
- “Phillips Curve” Starting to Light Up?
- Low Price Inflation—Reasons
- Cyclically Rising Wage and Price Inflation—Reasons
- Bottom-Line—Above Fed Target Price Inflation in the 2.3%-to-2.5% Range and Soon?
- Fed Prospect Coming into the Early August Meeting—Still Accommodative, then “Neutral,” Afterwards Tight—Crystal Clear!
- Financial Markets Implications—Interest Rates, Equities, the U.S. Dollar