» REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – July 2018 Decision Economics

REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – July 2018

Posted July 6, 2018 by rvillareal

Labor Market: Summer Pause or Heating Up?

  • Labor Market—Key Indicator for The Consumer, Economy, Inflation, the Fed, the Markets
  • June Labor Market—Strong, Mixed, Weak
    • Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
    • Full Employment? Price Stability?
  • Economy and Labor Market Prospects Rest-of-the-Year
    • DE “Basic Prospect”—Above-Trend Growth, Beyond Full Employment and Tight Labor Market, Rising Inflation—Price and Wage
    • Redistribution of Risks Toward the Downside
  • “Phillips Curve” Starting to Light Up?
    • Low Price Inflation—Reasons
    • Cyclically Rising Wage and Price Inflation—Reasons
    • Bottom-Line—Above Fed Target Price Inflation in the 2.3%-to-2.5% Range and Soon?
  • Fed Prospect Coming into the Early August Meeting—Still Accommodative, then “Neutral,” Afterwards Tight—Crystal Clear!
  • Financial Markets Implications—Interest Rates, Equities, the U.S. Dollar