REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – July 2018

Posted July 6, 2018 by rvillareal

Labor Market: Summer Pause or Heating Up?

• Labor Market—Key Indicator for The Consumer, Economy, Inflation, the Fed, the Markets
• June Labor Market—Strong, Mixed, Weak
  • Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
  • Full Employment? Price Stability?
• Economy and Labor Market Prospects Rest-of-the-Year
  • DE “Basic Prospect”—Above-Trend Growth, Beyond Full Employment and Tight Labor Market, Rising Inflation—Price and Wage
  • Redistribution of Risks Toward the Downside
• “Phillips Curve” Starting to Light Up?
  • Low Price Inflation—Reasons
  • Cyclically Rising Wage and Price Inflation—Reasons
  • Bottom-Line—Above Fed Target Price Inflation in the 2.3%-to-2.5% Range and Soon?
• Fed Prospect Coming into the Early August Meeting—Still Accommodative, then “Neutral,” Afterwards Tight—Crystal Clear!
• Financial Markets Implications—Interest Rates, Equities, the U.S. Dollar