REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – Oct. 2016

Posted October 7, 2016 by rvillareal

“Full Employment” and Beyond—U.S. Labor Market and the

Economy Entering Autumn

• Summer End, Fall Beginning for the Labor Market

• September—Strong, Weak, Sideways
• Jobs, Unemployment and Slack, Wage Inflation
  • Where the Jobs Are and Where Not
  • Any Slack Left? Beyond Full Employment?
• Inflation Signs from Labor Cost-Push
  • Summer End, Fall Beginning for the Economy
  • Weak Growth or A Cyclical Bounce? Current Track and Prospect
    • Consumer as Driver—Sparkling Fundamentals for

Both Spending and Saving

• Inflationary Pressure Starting?
• “Baseline” Prospect and Macro Risk Alternatives in Brief
• The Fed and Interest Rates
• Clear to Hike and the Path Ahead
• Higher Inflation a Key

• DE Fed Scenario and Interest Rate Outlook
  • Other Financial Markets
    • Equity Markets—Waiting for Earnings but Still a Secular Bull Equity Market
    • Dollar—U.S. Interest Rate Prospect a Dollar-Positive