» REPLAY: Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 1/26/18 Decision Economics

REPLAY: Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 1/26/18

Posted January 26, 2018 by rvillareal

U.S. Economy Q4 and Beyond: Strong Growth—Sustainable?

  • Q4 and 2017 Economy—“New” New Normal?
    • First Report on Q4 GDP—Strong?  Mixed?  Weak?
    • Inside the Economy in Q4, 2017 and Beyond
  • 2018-19 “Basic Prospect” (75% Odds)
    • Growth Strong; Unemployment Low and Lower; Inflation Moving Higher; Profits and Cash Flow Very Strong
    • Price Inflation an Uncertainty on Up-and-Down Forces
    • DE, Consensus and the Fed—DE Still Much More Optimistic
    • New” New Normal: 3% Growth-or-More Sustained and Sustainable?
  • Fiscal Policy—Trumponomics Tax Cuts—Economy, Jobs and Unemployment, Inflation, Profits and Cash Flow Effects
  • Monetary Policy—Fed Forecasts and Current Plan
    • On DE Forecasts—Four (4) Funds Rate Hikes in 2018
    • Balance Sheet Reductions on Schedule
  • Macro Risks—Political, Geopolitical, Inflation Spike, Boom Economy, Market Corrections, 2018 Congressional Elections
  • Stock Market—Unsustainably High or Reflecting a “New” New Economy?
    • S&P500 Operating Earnings Results for Q4 So Far—Up!
    • Valuation—P/E Multiple vs. “Forward Earnings”—Up!
    • New Fair Values, Ranges and “Targets”—Up!
    • Corrections?
  • Asset Allocations—Broad, Sector/Industry, Global/Region and Country
  • Potential “Surprises” in the Trumpian World and “New” New Economy—Positive and Negative