REPLAY: Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 1/26/18

Posted January 26, 2018 by rvillareal

U.S. Economy Q4 and Beyond: Strong Growth—Sustainable?

• Q4 and 2017 Economy—“New” New Normal?
  • First Report on Q4 GDP—Strong?  Mixed?  Weak?
  • Inside the Economy in Q4, 2017 and Beyond
• 2018-19 “Basic Prospect” (75% Odds)
  • Growth Strong; Unemployment Low and Lower; Inflation Moving Higher; Profits and Cash Flow Very Strong
  • Price Inflation an Uncertainty on Up-and-Down Forces
  • DE, Consensus and the Fed—DE Still Much More Optimistic
  • New” New Normal: 3% Growth-or-More Sustained and Sustainable?

• Fiscal Policy—Trumponomics Tax Cuts—Economy, Jobs and Unemployment, Inflation, Profits and Cash Flow Effects

• Monetary Policy—Fed Forecasts and Current Plan
  • On DE Forecasts—Four (4) Funds Rate Hikes in 2018
  • Balance Sheet Reductions on Schedule
• Macro Risks—Political, Geopolitical, Inflation Spike, Boom Economy, Market Corrections, 2018 Congressional Elections

• Stock Market—Unsustainably High or Reflecting a “New” New Economy?
  • S&P500 Operating Earnings Results for Q4 So Far—Up!
  • Valuation—P/E Multiple vs. “Forward Earnings”—Up!
  • New Fair Values, Ranges and “Targets”—Up!
  • Corrections?
• Asset Allocations—Broad, Sector/Industry, Global/Region and Country

• Potential “Surprises” in the Trumpian World and “New” New Economy—Positive and Negative

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