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REPLAY: Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 1/26/18
U.S. Economy Q4 and Beyond: Strong Growth—Sustainable?
- Q4 and 2017 Economy—“New” New Normal?
- First Report on Q4 GDP—Strong? Mixed? Weak?
- Inside the Economy in Q4, 2017 and Beyond
- 2018-19 “Basic Prospect” (75% Odds)
- Growth Strong; Unemployment Low and Lower; Inflation Moving Higher; Profits and Cash Flow Very Strong
- Price Inflation an Uncertainty on Up-and-Down Forces
- DE, Consensus and the Fed—DE Still Much More Optimistic
- New” New Normal: 3% Growth-or-More Sustained and Sustainable?
- Fiscal Policy—Trumponomics Tax Cuts—Economy, Jobs and Unemployment, Inflation, Profits and Cash Flow Effects
- Monetary Policy—Fed Forecasts and Current Plan
- On DE Forecasts—Four (4) Funds Rate Hikes in 2018
- Balance Sheet Reductions on Schedule
- Macro Risks—Political, Geopolitical, Inflation Spike, Boom Economy, Market Corrections, 2018 Congressional Elections
- Stock Market—Unsustainably High or Reflecting a “New” New Economy?
- S&P500 Operating Earnings Results for Q4 So Far—Up!
- Valuation—P/E Multiple vs. “Forward Earnings”—Up!
- New Fair Values, Ranges and “Targets”—Up!
- Asset Allocations—Broad, Sector/Industry, Global/Region and Country
- Potential “Surprises” in the Trumpian World and “New” New Economy—Positive and Negative