» REPLAY -Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – April 2017 Decision Economics

REPLAY -Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – April 2017

Posted April 28, 2017 by rvillareal

First Look (Q1) at the Overall 2017 U.S. Economy—Slow Start!  Fast Finish?


–         First Report on Q1 GDP—A Weak Start

  • GDP Report—Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Indicative of the State of the Economy?
  • Still in a Rut—Special Factors

–         First Look at the Q2 Economy

  • GDP Report Implications
  • Recent High-Frequency Data—Soft But Transitory?
  • “Disconnects” Between the Labor Market, Sentiment and Confidence, and Real GDP

–         Slow Start, Fast Finish?

  • DE “Basic Prospect” and Macro Alternatives—“Overshoot”
  • Macro Risk Alternatives

–          Risks Mostly Political and Geopolitical

–          Macroeconomic Risks

  • Economy Stronger, Inflation Higher, Unemployment Lower
  • The Coming Fiscal Stimulus and Its Prospects

–         Trumponomics—Fiscal Stimulus, Deregulation, Health Care, Trade and Immigration, the Working of Washington

–         The Fed, Interest Rates, and the Equity Market—Still Strongly Bullish Stocks and Strongly Bearish Fixed Income