REPLAY -Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – April 2017

Posted April 28, 2017 by rvillareal

First Look (Q1) at the Overall 2017 U.S. Economy—Slow Start!  Fast Finish?

–         First Report on Q1 GDP—A Weak Start

• GDP Report—Strengths and Weaknesses
• Indicative of the State of the Economy?
• Still in a Rut—Special Factors

–         First Look at the Q2 Economy

• GDP Report Implications
• Recent High-Frequency Data—Soft But Transitory?
• “Disconnects” Between the Labor Market, Sentiment and Confidence, and Real GDP

–         Slow Start, Fast Finish?

• DE “Basic Prospect” and Macro Alternatives—“Overshoot”
• Macro Risk Alternatives

–          Risks Mostly Political and Geopolitical

–          Macroeconomic Risks

• Economy Stronger, Inflation Higher, Unemployment Lower
• The Coming Fiscal Stimulus and Its Prospects

–         Trumponomics—Fiscal Stimulus, Deregulation, Health Care, Trade and Immigration, the Working of Washington

–         The Fed, Interest Rates, and the Equity Market—Still Strongly Bullish Stocks and Strongly Bearish Fixed Income