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REPLAY -Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – April 2017
First Look (Q1) at the Overall 2017 U.S. Economy—Slow Start! Fast Finish?
– First Report on Q1 GDP—A Weak Start
- GDP Report—Strengths and Weaknesses
- Indicative of the State of the Economy?
- Still in a Rut—Special Factors
– First Look at the Q2 Economy
- GDP Report Implications
- Recent High-Frequency Data—Soft But Transitory?
- “Disconnects” Between the Labor Market, Sentiment and Confidence, and Real GDP
– Slow Start, Fast Finish?
- DE “Basic Prospect” and Macro Alternatives—“Overshoot”
- Macro Risk Alternatives
– Risks Mostly Political and Geopolitical
– Macroeconomic Risks
- Economy Stronger, Inflation Higher, Unemployment Lower
- The Coming Fiscal Stimulus and Its Prospects
– Trumponomics—Fiscal Stimulus, Deregulation, Health Care, Trade and Immigration, the Working of Washington
– The Fed, Interest Rates, and the Equity Market—Still Strongly Bullish Stocks and Strongly Bearish Fixed Income