» REPLAY|DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications – 11/6/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY|DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications – 11/6/20

Posted November 6, 2020 by rvillareal

Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications

  • Labor Market Starting Q4—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
    • Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs); Unemployment Rate (Persons Working and the Labor Force); Wage Inflation (Avg. Hrly. Earnings and Income)
    • DE “Basic Prospect” (65% Odds “L” Real GDP Path With a Bottom Uptilt or “Swoosh”)
    • Pandemic Macro Risk—Far Worse Than Assumed—Integral to the Business Cycle
    • Macro Risk Alternative Scenarios For Real GDP Path—“W” or “Double-Dip” (15% Odds, Unch.); “V” (Odds 15%, Unch.); “Boom-Bust” (Odds 5%; Unch.)
  • “Hiring” and the Pace of Recovery—Recovery Sustainable?
    • Strengths, Weaknesses
    • Fed and Fiscal Policies—Clear and Unclear
      • “Ultra” Ultra Easy Monetary Policy
      • Fiscal Policies and Washington Politics—Uncertain
  • “Not Hiring” and the Pace of Recovery
    • Why Not Hiring?
      • Labor Costs Reductions
      • Switch to “New” New Technology—Rewiring and Restructuring the Economy
      • Technological Change Big Wave
    • Consequences of an “Army of Unemployed”
  • Election ’20 Results—Potential Impacts and Scenarios
    • Pandemic Actions Policies
    • Federal Government Fiscal Policies—The Executive and New Congress
    • Mood of America—Longer-Run Issues
  • Financial Markets Perspectives
    • Surprisingly Strong Earnings Q3 and Higher Fair Value Ranges
    • Longer-Run Still a New Bull Equity Market
    • Stable to Longer Duration Higher Interest Rates
    • Election and the Dollar—Neutral to Weaker