REPLAY|DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications – 11/6/20

Posted November 6, 2020 by rvillareal

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Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications

• Labor Market Starting Q4—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs); Unemployment Rate (Persons Working and the Labor Force); Wage Inflation (Avg. Hrly. Earnings and Income)
  • DE “Basic Prospect” (65% Odds “L” Real GDP Path With a Bottom Uptilt or “Swoosh”)
  • Pandemic Macro Risk—Far Worse Than Assumed—Integral to the Business Cycle
  • Macro Risk Alternative Scenarios For Real GDP Path—“W” or “Double-Dip” (15% Odds, Unch.); “V” (Odds 15%, Unch.); “Boom-Bust” (Odds 5%; Unch.)
• “Hiring” and the Pace of Recovery—Recovery Sustainable?
  • Strengths, Weaknesses
  • Fed and Fiscal Policies—Clear and Unclear
    • “Ultra” Ultra Easy Monetary Policy
    • Fiscal Policies and Washington Politics—Uncertain
• “Not Hiring” and the Pace of Recovery
  • Why Not Hiring?
    • Labor Costs Reductions
    • Switch to “New” New Technology—Rewiring and Restructuring the Economy
    • Technological Change Big Wave
  • Consequences of an “Army of Unemployed”
• Election ’20 Results—Potential Impacts and Scenarios
  • Pandemic Actions Policies
  • Federal Government Fiscal Policies—The Executive and New Congress
  • Mood of America—Longer-Run Issues
• Financial Markets Perspectives
  • Surprisingly Strong Earnings Q3 and Higher Fair Value Ranges
  • Longer-Run Still a New Bull Equity Market
  • Stable to Longer Duration Higher Interest Rates
  • Election and the Dollar—Neutral to Weaker