The Global Markets Weekly – 10/7/11

Posted October 7, 2011 by CLeahey

[private][private]U.S.:  Economic data this week will focus on consumer spending, consumer sentiment, and international trade.  Consumers are registering disgust with policy makers and jobs prospects, but retail sales are expected to have grown robustly in September after a weak August.  Trade data for August, should show an up tick in imports and solid exports, but risks to export markets from Europe and China persist. 

• Eurozone:  Aside from data, one key event might prove to be in Slovakia, the last country that has to endorse the revamped EFSF, with it far from fully certain that its parliament will give its approval in a vote due on Tuesday. The ECB will also release its next Monthly Bulletin (Thu), something that may flesh out is reasoning behind its latest policy decision.
• United Kingdom:  Industrial production will give an insight into how near recession the factory sector may actually be.  Most notable, however, will be the labor market report, with unemployment and average earnings among the more high-profile figures in store.  An update on the housing market actually awaits in the form of the RICS survey with some insight into consumer spending via the BRC retail sales survey.
• Japan:  The key item will be the August machinery orders report, which represents a relatively fresh, if volatile, reading on business sentiment, and will be watched for a new hint on fundamental direction, after several months of balanced up-and-down results.  Also important will be the August tertiary industry activity data, reflecting a major chunk of the production side of the economy—which appears to have plateaued disappointingly, after a strong post-disaster rebound.
• Emerging Markets/Regions:  On the calendar this week are trade and inflation figures for China.  Three central banks meet this week.  Indonesia and Korea should leave policy rates on hold, while some easing may unfold in Mexico eventually, but not this week.
• Focus:  In the U.K., the BOE has turned once again to more QE in an effort to bolster their sagging recovery. 

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